Will Bayern really let Ito leave for another top club?

In the stands of the Allianz Arena last weekend, there was a moment easily missed if you were only focused on the 5-1 demolition of Stuttgart. As the home side retreated to the dressing room after the final whistle, Hiroki Ito remained seated on the bench, his match shirt untouched by a single drop of sweat. He was the only Bayern player not to participate in a single phase of play in the first two competitive matches of the season — both the Supercup and the Bundesliga opener. For a 27-year-old at the peak of his career, this is no longer a story about patience. This is the clearest signal that a departure is drawing very near. The context of this deal began in the summer of 2026, when Bayern paid €23.5 million to bring Ito from Stuttgart. It was a contract highly rated tactically: a left-footed centre-back with excellent ball-playing ability, fitting the modern defensive trend. But after just one season, the picture has changed completely. Bayern now possesses a quartet of centre-backs in Upamecano, Tah, Kim, and Stanisic — all ahead of Ito in the pecking order. Opportunities at left-back are also virtually non-existent with quality options already in place. With only 31 competitive appearances in nearly two seasons, along with 2 goals and 2 assists, Ito is trapped in a system he cannot break into. Interestingly, it was Ito's agent who proactively contacted Ajax. This is not a situation where Bayern is shopping him around, but rather the player's camp actively seeking an exit. Ajax, after losing both Sutalo and Itakura in this transfer window, is in dire need of a left-footed centre-back capable of building play from the back — a profile Ito demonstrated very well during his Stuttgart days. The tactical fit is beyond question: Ajax's possession-based, high-pressing style is the ideal environment for Ito to maximize his passing ability and left-footed game reading. Financially, Bayern has no reason to block this deal. Ito's contract runs until 2028, but his value is depreciating with every match spent on the bench. Selling now would bring in around €15-20 million — less than the original purchase price, but still a reasonable return for a player not in the plans. More importantly, Bayern's current squad still has four quality centre-backs, so letting Ito go creates no structural gap. On Ajax's side, the aggressive recruitment of experienced players like ter Stegen, Brandt, Caio Henrique, Blind, and Amrabat signals a strong rebuild phase, and Ito is the perfect piece for their new defensive line. Many would argue that Bayern selling Ito below purchase price is a financial failure. But looking deeper, this is a completely rational business decision. Ito's book value after one year of amortization on a 4-year contract is approximately €17.6 million. Selling at €15-18 million would not even constitute an accounting loss. The "loss vs. purchase price" narrative is merely media framing. In reality, freeing up wage budget and reducing squad management complexity is worth far more than a few million euros in difference. The Dutch transfer window closes on September 2, one day later than Germany's. This creates a small tactical advantage for Ajax: they can complete the deal after Bayern has officially closed its market. With Ito's agent actively pushing and both clubs having clear incentives, the likelihood of this deal being completed before the deadline is very high. The remaining question is not whether Ito will leave, but what the final price will be — and whether Bayern truly realizes that keeping an unhappy player can cost far more than letting them go.